Midterm Election Day: More Than 54 Million Early Ballots, a House That Leans Democratic, and a Senate Map Democrats Must Win Big to Flip

Americans vote Tuesday in midterm elections that will decide which party controls Congress for the final two years of President Donald Trump's second term, according to NPR, The Guardian and The Associated Press.

The first polls opened in Vermont shortly after 5 a.m. Eastern, followed at 6 a.m. by Connecticut, Indiana, Kentucky, Maine, New Jersey, New York and Virginia, The Guardian reported. NPR said the first results would come in at 6 p.m. Eastern from Kentucky and Indiana.

<h3>What is on the ballot</h3>

All 435 voting seats in the House of Representatives are up. In the Senate, 35 seats are contested: 33 regular elections plus special elections in Florida and Ohio to fill terms vacated early, The Guardian reported. Republicans hold 53 Senate seats, against 47 held by Democrats and independents who caucus with them; Democrats need to gain four seats for a majority.

Estimates of what Democrats need in the House differ slightly by count. NPR reported that Democrats need to flip three seats for control, while The Guardian described a needed net gain of four. Both outlets describe Republicans as defending a narrow majority. NPR reported that Democrats are favored to win the House, and that a Republican effort to insulate the majority through rare mid-decade redistricting 'likely won't be enough.'

Thousands of state legislative seats, governorships, local offices, judicial contests and ballot measures on taxes, abortion rights and voting rules are also on ballots, The Guardian reported.

<h3>The early vote</h3>

More than 54 million people had already voted, nearly half the total ballots cast in the last midterm, NPR reported, adding that Democrats hold a double-digit advantage based on available early-voting data. The Guardian cited a University of Florida analysis putting early votes above 58 million. The difference reflects different counts and timing; neither figure shows how those ballots were cast.

NPR said a key variable is how many Republicans turn out Tuesday, because 'there are so many red states and districts in play, and the GOP votes overwhelmingly in person on Election Day.'

<h3>Races and closing turmoil</h3>

USA Today identified 14 Senate races likely to decide control. Contests cited in Tuesday morning coverage as pivotal include North Carolina, Georgia, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, Texas, Iowa and Kansas, with Democrats also needing to hold Minnesota and New Hampshire.

In Michigan, Democratic Rep. Haley Stevens, who lost her party's Senate primary to Abdul El-Sayed, endorsed his Republican opponent, Mike Rogers, on Sunday, The Guardian reported. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer called the endorsement 'a despicable betrayal.' In Alaska, a report said the Democratic Senate candidate's campaign was behind an effort to recruit a challenger with nearly the same name as Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan; the candidate, Mary Peltola, has denied any knowledge of such a scheme, according to The Guardian. A Justice Department lawsuit seeking to block certification of Alaska's Senate results in the event of a Republican defeat, citing potential voter confusion, was dismissed by a judge.

In Iowa, Democratic gubernatorial candidate Rob Sand and Republican Senate candidate Ashley Hinson held final rallies on Monday in what The Guardian described as toss-up races.

<h3>The closing messages</h3>

Democrats stayed focused Monday on voters' economic frustrations, while Republicans cast their opponents as dangerous radicals, the AP reported. Trump, the AP said, seemed more interested in his plans for beautifying Washington, appearing at the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool.

The election also follows a weekend of court rulings on voter lists. On Monday the Supreme Court declined, without noted dissent, a Justice Department request to force California to segregate about 20,000 ballots, and U.S. District Judge Tanya Chutkan barred federal agencies from sending states lists of alleged noncitizen voters, according to CBS News and Reuters.

<h3>History and timing</h3>

The president's party has lost House seats in 18 of the past 20 midterm elections, a 90 percent rate stretching back to 1946, The Guardian reported.

Results may not be known Tuesday night. Close contests, differing state rules for counting early and mail ballots, and possible recounts or legal challenges could delay final outcomes, The Guardian reported. NPR advised readers to be patient, noting that it may take a while to know who won some races.

In Massachusetts, polls are open from 7 a.m. to 8 p.m.; voters there also decide nine statewide ballot questions and races including governor and U.S. Senate.