Iliana Yotova Becomes Bulgaria's First Elected Woman President With 57.6%, in a Runoff Framed as a Vote on Ukraine

Iliana Yotova won Bulgaria's presidential runoff on Sunday with 57.57 percent of the vote, becoming the country's seventh president and the first woman elected to the post, according to Bulgaria's Central Election Commission figures reported by Radio Bulgaria and BNT. Her rival, Andrey Gyurov, received 39.48 percent.

With all protocols processed, Yotova and her running mate, Kiril Valchev, received 1,093,852 votes, and Gyurov and running mate Georgi Kandev received 750,251, Radio Bulgaria reported. Yotova had been the incumbent president.

<h3>A referendum on foreign policy</h3>

Prime Minister Rumen Radev cast the vote in stark terms. 'We are choosing between war and peace,' he told voters before the runoff, Deutsche Welle reported. DW wrote that the runoff 'turned into a kind of referendum on the country's foreign policy and stance on the war in Ukraine.' After the result, Radev said Bulgarians had chosen peace.

Both Radev and Yotova oppose military aid to Ukraine and criticize European leaders for not doing enough to engage with Russian President Vladimir Putin, DW reported. 'As long as I am president, and if you place your trust in me, not a single Bulgarian soldier will go to Ukraine,' Yotova declared at an Oct. 6 rally, although under Bulgaria's constitution only parliament, not the president, can send troops abroad or declare war, DW noted.

Two days before the runoff, Yotova said in a podcast interview: 'Russia is by no means an enemy of Bulgaria. Russia is part of our history, and I very much hope that it will be a key factor in the future security architecture across Europe, including for us,' according to DW. During the campaign she also said she did not want to see 'foreign flags in Bulgaria,' which DW described as a clear reference to Ukrainian flags displayed outside some institutions.

Gyurov, whom Yotova appointed caretaker prime minister in February, signed a security cooperation agreement with Ukraine in March, drawing the disapproval of both Yotova and Radev, DW reported.

<h3>How the race tightened, then broke</h3>

When the campaign began on Sept. 25, Yotova led polls with 44.5 percent to Gyurov's 26.1 percent, DW reported. She was backed by Radev and his Progressive Bulgaria party, which won an absolute majority in parliamentary elections on April 19. In the first round, however, Yotova won 34.8 percent to Gyurov's 31.95 percent, forcing the runoff.

Dimitar Ganev, a sociologist at the Trend research agency, told DW the divide was generational and geographic. 'Younger voters — those aged between 18 and 40 — favor Gyurov. Those over 40 tend to prefer Yotova,' he said, adding that Gyurov dominated in Sofia while Yotova led decisively in smaller cities, towns and villages.

The pro-Russian nationalist candidate Kostadin Kostadinov of Vazrazhdane finished third in the first round with 12.5 percent; Ganev estimated that about 70 percent of Vazrazhdane voters backed Yotova in the runoff, DW reported.

Gyurov campaigned mainly on social media, while Yotova spoke mostly to Progressive Bulgaria supporters in closed venues, according to DW.

<h3>Low turnout</h3>

Most opposition parties, including the center-right GERB led by former Prime Minister Boyko Borisov, declined to field candidates, one reason turnout on Sunday was below 30 percent, DW reported.

<h3>The Black Sea backdrop</h3>

The race took place amid attacks on shipping in the Black Sea. Days before the runoff, Radev noted that 'two ships were struck and sunk in Romanian territorial waters' after Romania had blamed Russia for attacks there. 'Many people think that once the aggressor is identified, the attacks will stop,' he said, remarks DW said drew criticism in Romania. The European Council criticized Russia for the escalation, and the European Parliament called on the EU to consider an EU naval operation, DW reported.

In the days before the vote, some Yotova supporters claimed the opposition was preparing a 'Maidan,' a reference to Ukraine's 2014 revolution. Sonya Momchilova, appointed to the media regulator by Radev, wrote on Facebook on Sunday that 'All of Gyurov's lackeys are speaking openly about inevitable protests,' DW reported. No protests had been reported in the sources reviewed.

<h3>What changes</h3>

Bulgaria's presidency is largely ceremonial but carries weight in foreign affairs and in appointing caretaker governments. With Radev's party holding a parliamentary majority and an allied president, Bulgaria, a member of the EU and NATO, now has a government and head of state aligned in opposing military aid to Ukraine.