Galvin Skipped His Usual Turnout Forecast. His Own Numbers Show Massachusetts Needs About 1.5 Million Voters Tuesday Just to Match 2022

Secretary of the Commonwealth William Galvin broke with his own custom on Monday and declined to predict how many Massachusetts voters will cast ballots in Tuesday's election, saying the indicators he relies on point in different directions, according to State House News Service, GBH News, WCVB and The Boston Globe.

'Usually, I'm offering a number. I'm simply not going to do that today because I think there are cross indicators,' Galvin said at his pre-Election Day press conference in the State House Library, according to State House News Service.

What Galvin did offer were the figures that frame the day. More than 1.1 million people had voted by mail or early in person as of Monday morning, he said. WCVB reported the figure as more than 1.108 million. Using the count through Friday, more than 733,000 ballots came by mail and more than 336,000 were cast in person, representing about 20.5 percent turnout among 5,230,765 registered voters, State House News Service reported.

<h3>The arithmetic</h3>

Roughly 2.5 million people voted in the 2022 midterm and 2.7 million in 2018, Galvin said. Matching 2022 would therefore require about 1.4 million more voters on Tuesday, a figure Galvin rounded up. 'The question is, will we come up with another 1.5 million people tomorrow? It's a hard question for me to answer,' he said, according to State House News Service and the Globe.

GBH reported that he framed it this way: 'I'm saying I think if we can get 1.5 million people to come out tomorrow statewide — which we can, and it's going to be great weather — then we will make at least what we got in '22. Will we get to the 2.7 (million) we had in '18? I have a hard time seeing that.'

WCVB quoted him as saying, 'I'm optimistic, maybe, that we'll make the 2.5 (million) that we had in 2022, I don't think we'll go much higher than that just based on the indicators I'm looking at. As I often say, I hope I'm wrong. I want a big, big turnout.'

<h3>Why the signals conflict</h3>

Galvin said there has been 'a dramatic increase' in early in-person voting while mail voting is running at about the same rate as in 2022. He suggested the in-person surge reflects voters wanting time to work through a long ballot, and that it 'probably is eating in to some extent to the people who are going to show up tomorrow – would have shown up tomorrow,' State House News Service reported. In other words, part of the early surge may be Tuesday's vote cast early rather than new voters.

The indicator pointing down is one Galvin watches closely: the number of people visiting his office's website to look up their polling place, which he said is lower than in past years. He also cited the absence of intense statewide races, while saying there is 'a momentum that is hard to project,' according to State House News Service. He pointed to the September primary, when Democratic turnout exceeded his estimate and Republican turnout fell short, as a reminder that indicators are often wrong.

Galvin also invoked the nation's 250th anniversary. 'For us not to have a significantly high turnout would be very distressful and not a great commemoration of our 250th anniversary,' he said, according to GBH.

<h3>A long ballot</h3>

This year's ballot carries a record-tying nine statewide questions, and ballots run up to four pages in some communities, WCVB reported. Galvin said he does not expect the number of ballot cards to delay voting or create lines, and that most early in-person voters appeared prepared. He suggested voters bring a list of their choices, GBH reported.

Galvin is himself on the ballot and supports Question 4, which would allow same-day voter registration; he told reporters he expects it to do well based on polling and conversations, according to GBH. The Globe noted he is an eight-term Democrat.

<h3>What voters need to know today</h3>

Polls are open from 7 a.m. to 8 p.m., and anyone in line at 8 p.m. may vote, according to the Secretary of the Commonwealth's office and the Globe. Galvin urged voters still holding mail ballots to put them in a drop box or deliver them to their local election office rather than mail them. Ballots postmarked by Election Day may still be counted if they arrive by Friday, Nov. 6, the Globe reported, citing state law.

The registration deadline for this election passed on Oct. 24. Voters who cannot be verified at the polls may cast a provisional ballot, which is counted later if officials confirm registration, according to the Globe.

The final turnout number will not be known until after polls close and local clerks report. Unofficial results begin after 8 p.m.